1/3: post-draft analysis

Some NBA teams have played 27 games already, which is roughly the one-third point of the season. Nice time to take a look back at the Larry Bird Association draft and see how players are performing relative to their draft position. The current ranking is based on season-average production, not total numbers.

1st Round
1. LeBron James, Dittywoowoo. King James went first in the draft, and his season has been marred ever so slightly by injury. Still, he has played in 23 games and ranks fourth in season-average production. Hard to argue with these stats: 29.5 ppg, .481 fg pct, 7.3 rpg, 7.5 apg, 1.9 spg, 1.2 bpg. When he improves at the foul line (.722) and reduces turnovers (3.3 per), he will truly become Jordanesque.

2. Kevin Garnett, Ginobili's Bald Spot. Though he was a preseason No. 1 by Yahoo, KG can't help but fall a bit short of those expectations. He's at No. 3, highly respectable. He's just too unselfish to ever make a killing in fantasy statlines. But I can't think of anyone who isn't cheering for him. Even Laker fans would love to see the new Celtic get sized for a title ring.

3. Kobe Bryant, The Team. This had to be the easiest third pick in history. Kobe was almost flawless in the second half of last season. My only question about him is whether he will be devoid of steals before the all-star break, as he was last season. He is at No. 6 currently, averaging 2.0 spg. My question ceases.

4. Dirk Nowitzki, kinner. Dirk is again showing signs of aging, if ever so slightly. He is 18th after being projected as No. 4 by Yahoo. His scoring average (21.9) is looking a bit weak and reminds me of the the declining numbers of Julius Erving in his final few seasons with the Sixers. Dirk is shooting rather well (.477 fg, .853 ft). He's passable on the glass (8.3 rpg) and is averaging 4.0 assists per game. But his steals (0.6) and blocks (0.8) are below average for a marquee player. If he were to play up to the expectations, kinner would dominate the Bird league even more than he already is.

5. Shawn Marion, bulldogs. Projected as a No. 3, he is currently second overall. Quite a performance after an off-season when he whined about being shopped around by Suns management. He is solid to outstanding in 14 of 15 categories; the weak spot is his foul shooting (.688). But the many of Matrix's numbers are breathtaking: 6.7 fgpg, .520 fg, 16.3 ppg, 2.3 orpg, 10.5 rpg, 2.2 apg, 2.2 spg, 1.7 bpg and only 1.2 turnovers per contest.

6. Chris Paul, Crusader Power. Some draftees would have bitched about being taken by New Orleans, but CP has thrived and excelled. He is ranked No. 1 in all fantasy basketball after being projected as a No. 12 by Yahoo. The numbers: 7.8 fgpg, 4.2 ftpg, .481 fg, .913 ft, 20.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 10.0 apg, 2.8 spg, 3.425 a/t ratio.

7. Steve Nash, Gophers. Projected by Yahoo at No. 6, Canada's Finest is at No. 13 in large part because of the turnovers (3.7 per game). The rest of his numbers, though, are off the charts: .516 fg, .933 ft, 17.3 ppg, 12.4 apg. His steals are non-existent (0.6 per), otherwise he'd be a Top 5 player. One of my favorite players of all time.

8. Gilbert Arenas, River Rat. Was on track for a great season until the knee injury. Was it overwork in the off-season? Too many video games? An online gambling addiction? Sorry, the latter have nothing to do with his knee, I know. We'll never know for sure if fatigue caused Big Zero's injury, but he could be back for the last couple of months.

9. Dwayne Wade, cavs08. Like Arenas, DW had a busy off-season, and his first month was below par. He sat out a couple of weeks with an injury, and since the return, ranks No. 54. A sure bet to increase his production. Interestingly enough, he was only rated No. 11 by Yahoo for the draft. The one stat that's killing D-Wade most? Turnovers, at 4.5 per game. OUCH.

10. Allen Iverson, Ala Wai BlackToppers. Sure, A.I. is in his 30s and never really worked out, never lifts weights. And still, he kicks ass. Projected by Yahoo at No. 34, he is at No. 10, right on cue. Major minutes have helped his production: 26.4 ppg, 7.3 apg, 2.4 spg. Turnovers still high at 3.7, but overall, he continues to attack the basket and produce. I thought by now all that punishment would've taken a toll on his skinny frame. I was wrong, thankfully so.

2nd Round

11. Yao Ming, Ala Wai BlackToppers. Projected by Yahoo at No. 10, he is currently 20th and underachieving a bit. His monster production late last season was promising, and in the past week, he started producing huge numbers again. However, he injured a pinky finger, then an index finger on Friday. On Saturday, he suffered a facial cut and didn't return. I have a theory that athletes are more prone to injuries big and small when they are fatigued. Yao's minutes had been large recently, and he was trying to ignore the possible fatigue. The Christmas break might be what the doctor ordered.

12. Dwight Howard, cavs08. If I'd remembered him, I might have drafted differently. For all his crazy double-double stats, however, he still isn't the highest-ranking Howard in the NBA. (That would be Josh Howard of the Mavs.) No, Dwight Howard was projected at No. 44, and he is is currently 45th in the rankings. That's right. Despite his scorching averages (23 ppg, 15 rpg, 2.6 bpg), his anemic free-throw shooting (.589) is among the worst, and he has poor steal (0.8), turnover (3.6) and A/T (.536) numbers. It seems preposterous to say this, but at No. 12, Dwight Howard was overrated! And I would've taken him.

13. Jason Kidd, River Rat. Two seasons ago (or was it last year?), I enjoyed having Kidd on my team. Could not count on him for points, but the assists were always there and it was fun watching him drop dimes on TNT. But his comeback last year had Yahoo's projection of Kidd at No. 8. Currently, he's way down at No. 37. Disappointment? I wouldn't have expected a Top 15 performance of him, but his 38% shooting and 3.7 turnover average are signs that age is creeping up. He's had off-court problems to deal with during his career, and the bad pub can't possibly be helping him right now. On top of all that, J-Kidd had to refute rumors that he was pissed about not being traded to the Lakers. Much as I like Kidd, give me Steve Nash any day.

14. Pau Gasol, Gophers. He's young, talented and underperforming. Gasol was projected at No. 9, but is 49th in the league. Shooting 49% but averaging only 17.6 ppg. Even the rebounds (8.0 per) are baffling. He's wanted out of Memphis for some time. Maybe he's just ... well ... depressed? Not everyone loves rock n' roll, the blues and the world's best ribs.

15. Rashard Lewis, Crusader Power. Lewis is making a new start in Orlando, but his reluctance to mix it up inside is killing the Magic. How does a gifted athlete who stands 6-foot-10 average just 5.3 boards per game? Yahoo pegged Lewis at No. 14 and he is currently 28th overall. He's shooting just 43% and offers no other stat worth much aside from free-throw percentage (.854). If he got to the line more often (2.9 makes per game), that sharpshooting foul-line touch would come in handy. However, as long as Lewis is content to hoist treys and act like a 6-3 shooting guard, he'll never help a team win a title, at least not as a starter.

16. Marcus Camby, bulldogs. With a rep for starting strong and wilting by mid-season, the Nuggets center is surprising no one right now. Projected at No. 18, Camby is currently No. 9 despite a meager .620 mark at the foul line. With 14.3 rpg, 3.2 apg and 3.4 bpg, Camby is a beast. His A/T ratio of 2.270 is nice, too. Clearly, a great pick.

17. Amare Stoudemire, kinner. Playing strong on that fixed knee, Stoudemire was projected at No. 13 and is currently at No. 11. His .780 mark at the line is nice, but his .567 field-goal percentage is nicer. Not sure why he only grabs 8.5 boards per game, but the 2.0 bpg is solid.

18. Tim Duncan, The Team. Injuries are bugging the Big Fundamental again. I had him on a team a couple years back and that was underwhelming. His game has been in decline for a few years, but his consistency is invaluable to the Spurs. They don't want to overwork him, and with the comeback from yet another injury, it'll be tough for TD to get over 20 ppg. One nice improvement this season has been his foul shooting (.733). All in all, projected at No. 15 and currently No. 22, not a bad pick.

19. Chris Bosh, Ginobili's Bald Spot. He missed a few games recently, but is back and putting up large numbers (43 points in a game last week). Projected at 17th, he is currently No. 27. Bosh will always get nice numbers in Toronto's uptempo game, and I believe his scoring average (20.4) will increase significantly. One of the league's best free-throw shooters (.854).

20. Carlos Boozer, Dittywoowoo. Best pick of the season so far? I think so. Projected 28th, now No. 7. His fadeaway mid-range shot is a work of art. At 24.7 ppg and 11.7 rpg, Boozer has made everyone forget his years of injuries. Solid with assists (3.2), he doesn't help much with blocks (0.6). But 10.4 buckets per game is real nice (.557).

That caps a look at the first two rounds of the Larry Bird Association. More analysis later.